Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 25
  1. #1
    User
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    At the Mountain
    Posts
    5,551

    Default Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Ok, I have reached a pause, a conclusion and hopefully an end in the search for the origins and validity of the claim that GFSA like to make that "Research in South Africa shows you are four times more likely to have your gun stolen from you than to use it in self-defence", for which they reference A.Altbekers 1999 and 2000 studies. This is what I have to say on the matter:

    All to often we are told that "research in South Africa shows that you are four times more likely to have your gun stolen from you than to use it in self-defense", this claim comes from the people of Gun Free South Africa and is now used by the media and common folk alike despite them not actually knowing the source of the information or having looked into how it came about. In time some have even added on their own extensions saying that not only are you four times more likely to have it taken from you, but you are as a result four times more likely to have it used against you.
    Thankfully GFSA give us their source as being two studies done in 1999 and in 2000 by Mr A. Altbeker, so it makes it possible for us to investigate further; which is exactly what I did.


    At this point I would like to mention that I wanted to ascertain information on the data and the study itself and whether or not reports made as a result had a solid base as Im certain even a well written report is completely useless if the information it is based on is not sound in the first place. I am also aware that Mr Altbeker has been asked a similar question before, but I was not at that event and although I am happy with the source of the information I have seen no verifiable evidence of the claims, so I thought it best to exclude that from this article. I would also like to add that Mr Altbeker may have been responsible for the collecting of the data, however the issue has been created by those who choose to use the data in a way that suits their needs; therefore I do not wish for the focus to be on Mr Altbeker but rather the data and how others have chosen to use it. Likewise I am aware of associations between Mr Altbeker and members of GFSA and that they funded the second study, but be that as it may I feel it has little bearing on the answers to my questions.
    I am also aware of other studies around socio economic affects on violent crime and around compliant victims and even studies showing successful uses of firearms in defensive situations which are also worth focusing on, but this article is focused on this specific claim and its quoted basis and not crime or firearm use as a whole.


    In an attempt to try and understand the origins of the claim by GFSA I looked into various reports to try and understand for myself how the studies were conducted and how various people and groups have responded to the reports which resulted from the research. Then having read reports that both sides had presented I contacted Mr Antony Altbeker to ask him two basic questions, after all who knows the study and its resulting data better than the person who conducted it.
    1) Does he feel that the research he conducted supports the four times more likely claim made by GFSA?
    2)Does he feel that the conclusion reached by some that the findings are "not generalisable and give little or no indication of the prevalence or effectiveness of defensive gun use in South Africa" is a reasonable one?


    Mr Altbeker wished to try and stay out of the gun debate, but he was kind enough to answer my questions by sending me some of his work in Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker which covers the questions, and from which I will quote, along with my first quote which is from Are South Africans Responsible Gun Owners - A.Altbeker et al (2000)


    With regards the 1999 study:


    "That said, in the nature of things, the cases we are looking at here are self-evidently ones in which the victims have been unable to defend themselves. They tell us, therefore, only part of the story about the likelihood, or otherwise, of defending oneself with a firearm"
    Are South Africans Responsible Gun Owners - A.Altbeker et al (2000)


    "The methodology of the study militates against drawing the conclusion that armed victims are much more likely to lose their weapons than to use them successfully"
    Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker


    With regards the 2000 study:
    "Once again data quality issues - in particular, the possibility that people who lost their weapons might have lied about the circumstances in which they did so in order to avoid a charge of negligence - mean that it is impossible to draw unambiguous conclusions"
    Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker


    With regards the Hennop et al 2001 study:
    "Given the breadth of the crimes covered, the representivity of the dockets of the population of incidents of gun-related crime is rather weaker than the other studies, therefore, the results of this work must be viewed as inconclusive. This inconclusiveness is worsened by ambiguities and inconsistencies in the reported findings"
    Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker


    I then thought of taking a similar look at international studies on the same subject, but having read through more reports I came to the conclusion that almost all of them which I had read suffered from the same problem highlighted in the first quote about the studies only involving those who unsuccessfully defended themselves, and the fact that these studies can't be proven to be applicable in South Africa I decided against going that route.
    "There are, however, more such studies from other countries. Unfortunately variations in the quality of these empirical studies, as well as uncertainties about their applicability, make it difficult to be sure how relevant these are to South Africa"
    Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker


    I believe that these quotes present a fair response to my questions.
    Given that Mr Altbeker was responsible for the studies done in 1999 and in 2000 I cannot see how anybody else can have a better understanding of the data and how it could be used, hence my contacting him directly, and if he tells me, that there are data quality issues, that it is not possible to get clear conclusions and most especially that "The methodology of the study militates against drawing the conclusion that armed victims are much more likely to lose their weapons than to use them successfully" Guns and Public Policy in SA - A.Altbeker, then I fear one would be foolish to believe anything that somebody reports to the contrary.

  2. #2
    Member Gunservant's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Strand
    Age
    34
    Posts
    10,408

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Ubresti, good work mate!

    I know you have a lot on your plate personally at the moment, but would you like to compose an article (800 words or less) and send it to Thought Leader? I reckon that this is very much fuel for our side of the debate, and you did a shitload of work in getting this information. Besides, you've got the gift of the gab clearly

  3. #3
    User
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    At the Mountain
    Posts
    5,551

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Gift of the gab? Nah, that ain't me.
    I'll give it some thought, but obviously it's here on the interweb so feel free to disseminate as you wish.

  4. #4
    Member Gunservant's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Strand
    Age
    34
    Posts
    10,408

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Quote Originally Posted by uBestRi View Post
    Gift of the gab? Nah, that ain't me.
    I'll give it some thought, but obviously it's here on the interweb so feel free to disseminate as you wish.
    If you don't feel up to it I will do a write up in the future. At the moment I've barely got enough time to get my letter to the Sowetan out (hopefully add finishing touches/edits and send it next week) as my ATPL/IF renewal happens tomorrow and Friday (PREC, don't ask), plus my BCom exams in May and June are in serious need of preparation. You've got the skills, so...it will be awesome to see your product if you get time :)

  5. #5

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Ubestri, I take my hat off. Well done!

  6. #6
    User
    Join Date
    Oct 2012
    Location
    At the Mountain
    Posts
    5,551

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Thank you Sir

  7. #7
    Moderator camouflage762's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Alberton
    Posts
    11,724

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Thanks uBestRi.

    Recent studies show that 1 out of every 3 liberals are just as dumb as the other 2

  8. #8
    User
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    GP
    Age
    39
    Posts
    5,076

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Good going uBeauty! Sorry uBestRi :), this is good info.

  9. #9
    User
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Stella
    Age
    42
    Posts
    9,510

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Thanks for the troubles - it helps to be armed in this way.

  10. #10
    User Paul's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    on the edge of the gene pool, playing with an open container of HTH
    Posts
    14,099

    Default Re: Four times more likely to spew nonsense

    Well done Ubestri. Glad you could get it out in such short order. It seems like only Monday... ;-{>}
    "Always remember to pillage before you burn"
    Unknown Barbarian

Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. [FOR SALE] CRKT SPEW
    By neilh in forum Accessories for Sale (Parts, Magazines, Stocks, Scopes, Reloading etc.)
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 06-09-2014, 17:06
  2. Operating Times & Range Times
    By TJ in forum Dave Sheer Guns
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 07-07-2014, 10:18
  3. Gunsite: Good Times, Bad Times & a Thank-You
    By francois.viljoen in forum General Discussion
    Replies: 22
    Last Post: 28-03-2014, 17:22
  4. Whats up with this zombie nonsense?
    By gertjie87 in forum Survival and Bushcraft
    Replies: 26
    Last Post: 15-07-2013, 20:47

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •