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Thread: SA's ticking time bomb
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16-04-2015, 13:41 #1
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SA's ticking time bomb
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/clem-...uths-freestone
Dr Michael John Freestone
GM MJF GROUP SA
Clem Sunter Future Prospects for South African Youths
SA's youth a time bomb, 12 February 2015
Here are some interesting statistics regarding the youth, their numbers and their unemployment which may interest some readers. The article is not really about race – it’s actually about numbers of the youth - but thanks to Stats SA who do still base their reports on race this is the way it comes out.
I have extracted and condensed the figures to highlight the youth - the future of the country, the figures being courtesy of Statistics SA, 2014:
Age Group 0-4, Black – 4,936,601, Coloured – 420,171, Asian – 99,256, White – 263,301;
Age 5-9, Black - 4,541,523, Coloured – 428,867, Asian – 96,953, White – 269,367;
Age 10-14, Black – 4,303,892, Coloured – 444,983, Asian – 93,863, White – 280,988;
Age 15-19, Black - 4,357,984, Coloured – 451,117, Asian – 101,609, White – 306,851;
Age 20-24, Black – 4,417,106, Coloured – 427,547, Asian – 109,668, White – 312,797.
Totals: Blacks – 22,557,106, Coloureds – 2,172,685, Asian – 501,349, White – 1,433,304.
Ratios: Blacks – 84,6%, Coloureds – 8,2%, Asian – 1,8%, White – 5,4%.
Comparatively the ratios for the entire population are 80% Black, 9% Coloured, 2,5% Asian and 8,5% White, total population being 54m.
If one had to plot the birth rate of the youth, dating back to 1990, from the above table, one would note the following: The figures for White, Coloured and Asian youth have remained fairly static since 1990, whilst those for the Blacks have increased steadily since 2005 to a point where they now account for almost 85% of their age group. Since 1990 the numbers of Black youth – aged 0-24 – have increased by 11% whilst those of the Coloureds, Asians and Whites have decreased by 1%, 9% and 15% respectively.
Simply put, the Black birth rate is increasing fast – steadily - that of Coloureds is decreasing slowly, that of Asians decreased between 1990 and 2005 but is now increasing slightly again and the White birth rate is declining rapidly – and steadily – and has been doing so since 1990.
We can thus estimate that by 2030 – based on current growth - for the age group 0-24 there will be 91 Blacks, 7 Coloureds, 1 Asian and 1 White in every group of 100 youngsters. Those who thus keep harping on about driving the Whites into the sea should not bother anymore as we’re disappearing fast anyway and by 2030 are liable to account for less than 2% of the total population.
The bad news of course is that starvation, unemployment and misery are likely to still be present, but they’ll apply generally only to Blacks - their being over 90% of the population by that stage - and generally to young Blacks. At present there are in fact 4,9 million Black youngsters aged 0-4 whereas the total white population is 4,5 million. Consider also that there are another 4,5 million Black youngsters aged 5-9, another 4,3 million aged 10-14 and another 4,3 million aged 15-19 – hopefully all at school - and you begin to see the enormity of the challenge facing the country and the government in attempting to feed, house, educate and otherwise sustain such numbers.
Regarding unemployment amongst the youth – calculated at 48% across the board by Stats SA – it would seem that of a total population for this group of 10,4 million, 5 million are thus unemployed, and even more disturbing is that at least 4,2 million of these are Black. Considering that the entire White population is about 4,5 million this is a figure that should worry all with regard to education, crime, service delivery, government expenditure, job creation and socio-economic woes.
The above all give us pointers to where the country is going and most importantly what problems can be foreseen. The youth – aged 15-24 – currently account for 20% of the total population, some 10 million of them, whilst the young – aged 0-14 – form 30% of the population and number some 16 million. Add these two groups together – 50% of the entire population and 26 million in number - and you see the size of the problem facing us unless jobs are created, fast, or the Black birth rate is slowed. Quite noticeably, AIDS hasn’t had the effect it was claimed it would have and as a result the young Black population is exploding way beyond what the country can cope with, now or in the future.
Unfortunately it would seem that the government, AKA the ANC, are either unaware or uncaring of this growing problem when they should be seriously worried for grants, subsidies, education, housing, services – all things relating to this age group in fact – are going to eat an increasingly larger portion of their budget, regardless of what they do now.
The South African economy needs to grow fast, starting now, if it is going to absorb another 26 million job seekers over the next 15 years. We can’t export them, we have to create jobs for them! For this reason alone the government should be actively creating an environment wherein jobs can be easily created, they should be attempting to slow the Black birth rate and they should be concentrating on creating capitalistic solutions for hungry mouths, rather than attempting to instil socialistic ideas in an exploding population of young hopefuls.
If they are not doing so, and to all intents and purposes it seems they are not, then SA is heading for a huge problem, notwithstanding Eskom and the rest , in that there will be more young people than there will be enough food, drink, housing, education and services to cater for them.
Socialism is definitely not going to feed that many mouths and grants and subsidies will eventually cripple any future government.[b]Be ready for anything, and if his head is not at least two meters away from the body, do not 'assume' he is dead and out of the fight.[/b] [I]- Ikor[/I]
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16-04-2015, 14:38 #2
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
"Never use brute force to fight an exponential." - Andrei Alexandrescu
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16-04-2015, 16:24 #3
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
HKGK!!
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16-04-2015, 21:42 #4
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
blame it on apartheid.
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16-04-2015, 21:53 #5
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
Nice little simmering pot we have. . . This can turn very ugly within the next 5-6 years.
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16-04-2015, 21:55 #6
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
Anybody know how to find work in... well anywhere else... rrruuunnn!!!!!
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17-04-2015, 08:36 #7
Re: SA's ticking time bomb
Looking at this, methinks that I want to run. I have real options with direct family in NZ, Auz, US and UK.
However ZA is my country! and I don't want to run.Israeli Carry is for dead people
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17-04-2015, 10:04 #8
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Re: SA's ticking time bomb
If you don't have any other solution or means to get out, that is another story. But I believe anyone with kids owe it to them to GTFO if you can.
I don't want to have to shoot at an angry mob outside my house trying to kill me and my family. I don't want to see my family killed in front of me after an angry mob have dragged us out of our houses/cars etc. Ammo stocks will only last that long what happens then?
I don't want my family to have to endure or experience a civil war/genocide.
I don't want to see my family under constant attack just because they have something to steal, because some part of the population thinks we stole it from them in the first place and now they are entitled to it.
My kids cant ride their bikes in the neighbourhood because kids have been held up at knife point and their bikes stolen.
My kids cant be left alone to play outside because fuckers jump fences and hold your family up.
I cant braai without my pistol.
I cant swim without my pistol.
I cant take a shit without my pistol.
My kids freak out when the alarm goes off during the night because people all around us have been high jacked or robbed.
Where are all the jobs going to come from for the population growth?
Where are all the grants going to come from to look after everyone?
Taxes are going to increase exponentially.
I don't want my kids growing up in a country where it doesn't matter how hard they study they might not get a job because they are white.
Even worse doesn't matter what their marks are in matric, they're not allowed to study at the university of their choice because they can only take so many white people.
I am really finding it tough to stay positive about this country but I believe the writing is on the wall, and not just for white people.
Because when the majority of whites are gone, the black, Asian, coloured and Indian middle class will have to carry this already over burdened economy and endure the high jacking's and break-ins on a constant basis from those who don't want to work hard to get nice stuff.
Yeah not having a really great week.
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17-04-2015, 10:17 #9
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17-04-2015, 10:33 #10
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