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  1. #951

    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Death rates dont tell the whole picture. They may well reflect first world care. The word I get from those who actually deal with this is be scared. Yes most get it very mildly and co morbidity is an issue but being young and fit does not guarantee that you will not scar your lungs for life if you are one of the unlucky.

  2. #952
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news...fears-45880481

    This would suggest that the virus was here long before they diagnosed the guy from Italy.

  3. #953
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    We are going into winter, our population suffer from HIV and TB, they live on top of each other, and they do not practice social distancing.......Many people only got paid a day or two ago. All of those people were in some shoulder to shoulder queue yesterday and then in some crowded shop and then likely in some crowded transport to a crowded living quarters.We know this thing is mostly transmitted by human exhalement of body fluids during normal breathing coughing and sneezing. We know it lies dormant for 2/3 weeks and we know carriers do not necessarily show signs of virus or sickness.All these levelling out stats and containment announcements in South Africa are utter rubbish, we can only start to take assessment of this thing in 3 weeks’ time when the last say 3/4 days of human interactions cross infection results becomes evident. We are in a lull of a dormant virus at the moment, the infections are just not fully blown yet, visible, needing medical attention. I am reading and trying to sift through hundreds of articles and reports much of my day, trying to determine facts and disregard news mongering and sensationalism. I try confirm what I am reading and hearing, but it’s almost impossible not to be misled, quiet often.From what I know about viruses and have learnt about pandemics - epidemics and plaques, we are nowhere yet, we are not even able to determine a work with-able number yet, we have no idea at all where we are on this incline and it’s still most certainly the incline we are experiencing.My pessimistic view - we are not even 10 % into this thing.Look at the incubation period, consider the number of sub-clinical infections walking around refusing to believe they sick or not knowing, then take our transport conditions and living condition for many in to account. Take the far out people living in the Transkei Ciskei, on those hills out in the trout fishing areas, entire villages will have this thing before some health worker ever sets foot in those hills.Those hills get visitors and will have funerals, no one will be at that village of 80 people to inforce shutdown, and even if we beat it in the suburbs or cities, we will have so many feeder sources of reinfections from these remote rural areas – flare up, shut down – flare up, shut down. The world my beat this thing, but we will still be fighting flare ups for a long time. And then? We will be economically blocked by trade bans till we are no longer an infection risk by travel and exports to other countries.

  4. #954
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gleock View Post
    https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news...fears-45880481

    This would suggest that the virus was here long before they diagnosed the guy from Italy.
    I would agree
    live out your imagination , not your history.

  5. #955

    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Quote Originally Posted by KK20 View Post
    I would agree
    Many in the UK suggest that the virus has been infecting people from late 2019.

  6. #956
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    I wonder how many false negatives are due to the test kits. Some at Pathcare say 10-15%. They say that the new quick test being rolled out from home to home could be closer to 50%.

    Then there’s this guy...

  7. #957
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Springer View Post
    Many in the UK suggest that the virus has been infecting people from late 2019.
    *************************
    Surely medical records would prove disprove this?

  8. #958
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Gleock View Post
    https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news...fears-45880481 This would suggest that the virus was here long before they diagnosed the guy from Italy.
    Please explain. I seem to have lost comprehension.

  9. #959
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Quote Originally Posted by WCC View Post
    I wonder how many false negatives are due to the test kits. Some at Pathcare say 10-15%. They say that the new quick test being rolled out from home to home could be closer to 50%.

    Then there’s this guy...

    “One's first step in wisdom is to question everything - and one's last is to come to terms with everything.”

    I must admit, I'm suspicious of the numbers.

    It's being reported that the average age of those actually dying of this virus in Italy is 78-79 years old. In almost all the cases comorbidity exists. As you can imagine, by 80 most humans aren't in the best of health. At least report the actual age of the patients who die, so that we can start gathering reliable statistics.

    In my opinion only hospitalizations should be counted, and let's stop inflating the numbers by counting positive test results. Positive test results are almost meaninglessness unless you are actually testing a substantial percentage of a given population. Then there's the hysterics coming out of New York City.

    In an "average week" in New York City roughly 1,100 people will die. About 1 every 9 minutes. I'd like to know the total death rate in that city currently. It should be simple enough, each death has to be reported. Knowing if it's substantially higher than average, or not might be useful information to have.

  10. #960
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    Default Re: Coronavirus. Already here?

    Quote Originally Posted by gertjie87 View Post
    Good questions
    Italy loses about 60/1000 people a year that is average 9800 people per day dying anyway in italy
    I think I'm begin to understand my frustration with you lot that lack appreciation for the severity of the situation, and my failure to communicate what I'm seeing here in Europe.

    The infection is not spread equally throughout any country, hence all the restrictions attempting to slow down the spread.

    In Italy, Lombardy accounts for 58% of the fatalities.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020...demic_in_Italy

    So while 9800 people die in Italy on any given day, it would be a mistake to compare that figure to the daily death rate being reported. The only valid comparison would be to look at how many people actually die in Lombardy on any given day.

    In 2018, approximately 99500 people died in Lombardy. That equates to about 273 people per day. Now compare that to the 58% of the daily death rate being reported.

    When you do that comparison, take into account that there are already movement and contact restrictions in place.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/...aly-by-region/

    The same will be observed in the Netherlands, Germany, France and Spain.

    In the hard hit regions, hospitals are running out of ICU beds. Mortuaries and Crematoriums can't handle the extra influx. So much so, that they need to transfer patients, and bodies to other regions. That is what you would expect to happen when more than the usual amount of people get sick and die.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sk...elmed-11959994

    https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach....google.com%2F

    Then there is the argument that the majority of the people dying were already sick and old.

    Here's another statistic: 40% of people needing hospitalisation in the US are between 20 and 54 years old. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nyt...eople.amp.html

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