Coronavirus. Already here?

**Gleock** · 02-04-2020, 10:29

Originally Posted by janfred

Please explain. I seem to have lost comprehension.

You believe our first case arrived 3 months after the outbreak and from a country that wasn't the epicentre of the pandemic?
The amount of travel and trade between SA and China, it's much more likely the virus came into the country from there and was just not detected.

**Springer** · 02-04-2020, 11:44

**thereaper** · 02-04-2020, 12:31

Could the schools begin closed on the 18th have something to do with the drop of newly confirmed cases we are currently seeing? There are just too many variables to know exactly when implemented measures will start to show an effect on numbers. In theory, assuming a 5-14 day incubation period, that could be the reason, but I don't know how much our tests are lagging behind.

In general, I think schools are probably the biggest spreader of colds and flu, so closing schools was probably a good thing.... As for the lockdown. That was probably the worst decision that could have been made in the South African context. There was absolutely no way that COVID-19 was going to be stopped once it spreads to a township, lockdown or not. I don't know if it would have been that much worse without a lockdown, but with serious social distancing and large gathering bans, but at least the economy would not have been completely destroyed.

The flip side of the coin, maybe the lockdown is stopping the virus from spreading in its tracks (I doubt it, but lets assume). That is ALSO not a good thing imo, because then the lockdown will have to be extended until enough people gets it to get to some heard immunity. Otherwise we will be riding wave after wave of lockdown, crazy spread, lockdown....

**bronxlive** · 02-04-2020, 13:18

I read an article that reckons in SA only about 6000 "public patients" were tested and around 45000 "private".

I guess that means only 6000 people that doesn't have medical aid were tested and that's the reason for the new door to door testing roll out.

If those numbers are accurate then our reported numbers are nowhere near accurate.

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**Springer** · 02-04-2020, 13:29

I don't think any country has accurate numbers. The only thing that one could consider accurate (although debatable) is the mortality rate. Countries have different ideas on how to deal with this - test/don't test, lockdown/don't lockdown. It's a crapshoot. Ramaphosa is in a win-win situation, and knows it.

**thereaper** · 02-04-2020, 13:33

Originally Posted by bronxlive

I read an article that reckons in SA only about 6000 "public patients" were tested and around 45000 "private".

I guess that means only 6000 people that doesn't have medical aid were tested and that's the reason for the new door to door testing roll out.

If those numbers are accurate then our reported numbers are nowhere near accurate.

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They are not testing door to door, only screening...
https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister...ovid-19-31-mar

Fellow South Africans, as the Honourable President announced yesterday, 10 000 Community Health Care Workers will be deployed across the country to conduct door to door screening in our most vulnerable communities. I must emphasize that they will be conducting screening and not tests: the field workers will not conduct any tests but will refer any persons suspected of having Coronavirus to the nearest CHC, clinic or hospital. I also want to emphasize that, at this stage, only PCR tests will be conducted at health care facilities.

**treeman** · 02-04-2020, 14:14

Originally Posted by Davidc

Well seeing as the government controls what gets reported coupled with the backlog of tests results, I think we are in for a massive surprise in the next week or so.
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My post #953, I am pretty sure that it will play out like I guess it, and the prediction that we will still be on a travel commerce ban for some time after other countries are up and running because we will have wave after wave of flare ups.

**SoldierMan** · 02-04-2020, 15:03

Once this hits the townships we are pretty well screwed...

**KK20** · 02-04-2020, 15:25

Originally Posted by Gleock

You believe our first case arrived 3 months after the outbreak and from a country that wasn't the epicentre of the pandemic?
The amount of travel and trade between SA and China, it's much more likely the virus came into the country from there and was just not detected.

I looked at over the counter ( OTC ) trends for medicines that treat symptoms of the covid19 and we sold more in November/December than we did in the so called flu season of the winter before. So I think that so called official figures are thumb suck and hope.