Trouble Brewing

[Rigby]

I rarely post any political comments, however I am at a point where I now think that things in SA should get even worse for meaningful change to take place and I doubt the ANC will even get to the next election in one piece .

[SoldierMan]

I rarely post any political comments, however I am at a point where I now think that things in SA should get even worse for meaningful change to take place and I doubt the ANC will even get to the next election in one piece .

ESKOM 2 is on the way courtesy of the ANC.

Remain calm. All will be well.

[noost]

ESKOM 2 is on the way courtesy of the ANC.

Remain calm. All will be well.

Phew...started getting worried for a second there

[Ocali]

Any trouble??

Nope all was well. Thankfully

Sent from my PPA-LX2 using Tapatalk

[swimma]

I rarely post any political comments, however I am at a point where I now think that things in SA should get even worse for meaningful change to take place and I doubt the ANC will even get to the next election in one piece .

What we are seeing with the ANC (and its been building for a while now), is an organisation thats increasingly desperate to protect its enablers. The patronage network keeps the ANC going - well connected elites get tenders --> they 'donate' a substantial amount of money to the ANC --> ANC uses that money to campaign and keep themselves in power --> well connected elites get tenders...... and so on.

But time is running out for them, there is less money to steal, more competition within the party with distinct factions vying for power to keep their own network of elites happy.

I don't see them staying in power past the last 2 election cycles. But can our country handle another 10 years of them?

[Dick]

Once the interest rates go up, pensioners seem to smile.

That's because many are living on interest, often on too little capital to generate enough income. Dunno how mortgage bonds look these days but I haven't forgotten when inflation was 15% for several years but interest rates half of that. One of the results was that bond repayments became annually cheaper in real terms while the incomes of older people in particular were eroded to the extent of 7 or 8% a year. It was said at the time that there were eight little old ladies whose capital funded each bond, so it amounted to a big transfer of wealth from the poor to the better off. Bottom line is that high inflation and high interest rates are destructive.

[SoldierMan]

What we are seeing with the ANC (and its been building for a while now), is an organisation thats increasingly desperate to protect its enablers. The patronage network keeps the ANC going - well connected elites get tenders --> they 'donate' a substantial amount of money to the ANC --> ANC uses that money to campaign and keep themselves in power --> well connected elites get tenders...... and so on.

But time is running out for them, there is less money to steal, more competition within the party with distinct factions vying for power to keep their own network of elites happy.

I don't see them staying in power past the last 2 election cycles. But can our country handle another 10 years of them?

But then the question must be asked - even if they are voted out, will the ANC go quietly into the night?

Or will they implement martial law or use the army to stay in power by force like so many other African countries have done, and so see the end of a democratic South Africa once more.

I wouldn't put it past them at all at this point.

[Dick]

I rarely post any political comments, however I am at a point where I now think that things in SA should get even worse for meaningful change to take place and I doubt the ANC will even get to the next election in one piece .

Since 2011 or thereabouts the ANC has lost 8% support at every round of local elections, resulting in an average score of 48% at the recent 2021 locals. That's why the DA tells us that the ANC will come slightly short of 50% in 2024. But the ANC has bled votes at general elections at the rate of only 4% every five years. It is therefore not at all certain that it will fail to get 50%. But OK, another two years of loss of popularity may take it to a tad either side of 50. The DA wants to believe that there will be a coalition in which it will be a leading partner, but that fails to consider the EFF which scored 25 parliamentary seats at its first attempt in 2014, and 44 seats in 2019. To put that into perspective, the ANC/EFF axis lost only 5 seats from 2009 to 2019, and all the seats lost by the ANC went to the EFF. We are seeing minimal loss over a long period of time, but with a significant shift of support from the ANC to the EFF. As oafpatroll so eloquently put it in another thread "the criminal stupidity of the electorate." The DA likes to tell us that the EFF is not necessarily always in bed with the ANC, and indeed we have recently seen some quite violent anti-ANC rhetoric from Julius. But they are none the less children of the same mother, and whatever shape it might take, I expect the EFF to have greater influence after 2024. If that pattern holds up we can expect that axis to rule for the next three or four decades. We need to think outside the box, as some of us are doing, but I won't get into that here.

[Rigby]

Since 2011 or thereabouts the ANC has lost 8% support at every round of local elections, resulting in an average score of 48% at the recent 2021 locals. That's why the DA tells us that the ANC will come slightly short of 50% in 2024. But the ANC has bled votes at general elections at the rate of only 4% every five years. It is therefore not at all certain that it will fail to get 50%. But OK, another two years of loss of popularity may take it to a tad either side of 50. The DA wants to believe that there will be a coalition in which it will be a leading partner, but that fails to consider the EFF which scored 25 parliamentary seats at its first attempt in 2014, and 44 seats in 2019. To put that into perspective, the ANC/EFF axis lost only 5 seats from 2009 to 2019, and all the seats lost by the ANC went to the EFF. We are seeing minimal loss over a long period of time, but with a significant shift of support from the ANC to the EFF. As oafpatroll so eloquently put it in another thread "the criminal stupidity of the electorate." The DA likes to tell us that the EFF is not necessarily always in bed with the ANC, and indeed we have recently seen some quite violent anti-ANC rhetoric from Julius. But they are none the less children of the same mother, and whatever shape it might take, I expect the EFF to have greater influence after 2024. If that pattern holds up we can expect that axis to rule for the next three or four decades. We need to think outside the box, as some of us are doing, but I won't get into that here.

the DA are a own goal scoring machine

[swimma]

But then the question must be asked - even if they are voted out, will the ANC go quietly into the night?

Or will they implement martial law or use the army to stay in power by force like so many other African countries have done, and so see the end of a democratic South Africa once more.

I wouldn't put it past them at all at this point.

Honestly, I think they'll do whatever they can to hang onto power. They're already fighting amongst themselves for whats left to plunder. The failure of all of the SOE's is directly because of the ANC's policies. There is little money left in those to steal. Which means less donations to the ANC to keep them in power. Remember that issue a few months back where ANC staff hadn't been paid their salaries? That was because they can't even manage their own cashflow, and needed to be bailed out by an anonymous donor.

The whole house of cards is falling down.

But, I think we underestimate their need to stay in power.

Right now, there is mounting momentum and coordinated efforts within the ANC to boot out CR and put in a Zuma ally, so this is almost an inevitability.