Bug-out or Not

[Trundle]

This is a follow-up on my 4 Calibers post.
I actually started this as a response in the thread, but it morphed into a new subject.

Many people mentioned the need to be mobile with multiple long guns, and thus having to reduce the firearms to allow for mobility.
The thinking that you need to be mobile with all 4 at the same time is where there is a self imposed limitation.

This is my take:
1) If you are bugging out to a prearranged location, your primary mode of transport will be some type of vehicle. This will in itself allow for additional carrying capacity.
The general "bugging-out thinking" is that you are pre-supplied elsewhere and in theory the majority of supplies are pre-positioned.
If not then you will have limited ability to take a lot more supplies with you.
If the emergency arises and you need to bug out unplanned and untested you will carry a lot of non-essentials to the detriment of essentials.

2) If your vehicle in the scenario above fails, OR you have no transportation besides walking... well that's not ideal. The average family will not make it far, especially if there are young kids. The majority of young kids/teenagers will not have the correct footwear for such a situation. You will also be severely limited in carrying capacity and you will make for a cumbersome party that will be difficult to literally do anything. The distance to your BOL will greatly affect survivability.

3) If you are bugging out with no pre-arranged destination either in a vehicle or on foot, but are just trying to escape riots etc, then you are effectively a refugee and at the mercy of wherever you are going. In this scenario you will definitely arrive without planning and proper preps. If you want to infiltrate another persons BOL with zero skills and no real stores then reception will be frosty at best. This is important to understand, as even people you know may not appreciate the additional burden of you, your family and your in-laws or associated and very often useless mouths.

4) If you are bugging in, then your options are a lot more robust and you should already have plans and procedures in place. I know a number of people have a last stand mentality on their properties. The location and access roads to this property will determine greatly how you fair.

5) Bugging in and then bugging out. This is many peoples idea as to what they would do. They naturally want t protect their homes. With the hope of maybe services / calm etc will be restored, so they remain in place and if things really get hairy then think about bugging out in one of the above formats, but probably Opt 3. There are multiple issues here, I'll cover just a few.
The biggest problem that you have here is people using up vital resources and being unable to top-up or purchase more (Fuel used in generators as opposed to vehicles for getting the hell out)
Next, you will be traveling on roads that are now "owned" by who knows what gangs / forces etc.
Your intended BOL may or may not be accessible or even available.

At the end of the day, I fear that most people will choose option 5 in the hopes of a quick restoration.

[oafpatroll]

If it needs anything more than 5 I don't want to come back and getting my wife and kid to the UK will be priority no.1. Happily they have the requisite paperwork and I expect the poms would make something of an effort to get people out as they have done in other shitholes that have collapsed. Protecting my home would not be a priority beyond what it may provide for me ito immediate shelter and leaving it would be occasioned by the local situation unravelling. If SA falls over in a general and widespread manner my expectation is that it would stay that way for a period considerably longer than I have the fortitude to wait out and I certainly don't have enough grensvegter in me to join a kommando.

[Steven001]

2000-3000 Liters of diesel at most times.
4x4 Double Cab bakkie with a very long range tank.

Ill always fail to prep for every situation but transport and generator capacity are covered, I would prefer to bug in though, Solar, clean water, dirty water, Good perimeter not easy to scale at all, plus if you are on our property of 3 houses, you are in range of 12GA, I have thought a lot about going AR Route but I wont waste the money on enough ammo to become useful with it as mentioned in the previous discussion and people forget that Botswana and Mozambique borders are very close by road.

My old man had the biggest Flex in 1994, we were camping in Sodwana around the unrest times and his Piper Ceneca 3 was fully fueled parked at the air strip, he said if the shit hits the fan we will be over the border in a matter of minutes destination Mozambique or even Madagascar....

We dont fly privately anymore but that would sure as hell help to get out when there is not other option.

[SoldierMan]

2000-3000 Liters of diesel at most times.
4x4 Double Cab bakkie with a very long range tank.

Ill always fail to prep for every situation but transport and generator capacity are covered, I would prefer to bug in though, Solar, clean water, dirty water, Good perimeter not easy to scale at all, plus if you are on our property of 3 houses, you are in range of 12GA, I have thought a lot about going AR Route but I wont waste the money on enough ammo to become useful with it as mentioned in the previous discussion and people forget that Botswana and Mozambique borders are very close by road.

My old man had the biggest Flex in 1994, we were camping in Sodwana around the unrest times and his Piper Ceneca 3 was fully fueled parked at the air strip, he said if the shit hits the fan we will be over the border in a matter of minutes destination Mozambique or even Madagascar....

We dont fly privately anymore but that would sure as hell help to get out when there is not other option.

Before '94 my mom bought an extra roll of toilet paper or two and a few cans of baked beans just in case. Not big preppers or thought all would be well

[CorditeCrazy]

Go take a 1:50000 map of your area. See where all the squatter camps and locations are. Realise you are surround. Realise that you won’t get get though them in a soft skinned vehicle.

If you haven’t bugged out before the SHTF you are best off bugging in.

[Messor]

There are too many aspects to address in one go, but first let’s just have a look at the bug-in scenario. Let’s for example say we are met with the most likely scenario, electricity grid failure.

First thing to remember is your whole urban life is based on systems, one system based on another, all linked.
With that in mind, let’s say you have your power sorted, you have nice solar on your roof with a good inverter and lots of lithium batteries.
Have you tested this for two weeks, I ask because most people just run hybrid, they use the sun when avail but still relies on Eskom to fill the gaps in time of poor solar activity, if it’s cloudy for a week how far does your system go, do you know?
Secondly most people only use 1 inverter, if something goes wrong with your system in times of crisis there is no calling the repair guy, you have that one unit and that is it.

Now water, let’s say you have a tank full of water, what will you do with said water besides drinking?
I say this because the sewage system is based on power, down for an extended period of time and the sewage goes down, you have all the water you need you just cannot flush your toilet, since the sewage is clogged up and there is nobody to fix it, is your family used to using the grass in your garden as a toilet like your dogs do, it will come to that?

Now comms, there is a crisis and you need to phone….someone, how do you do that?
Don’t tell me you have an inverter, you do but the cell towers have all failed, you sit without comms, you ain’t phoning nobody. We’ll then some oke will say I will just whatsapp call them via my fiber, sorry, fiber runs through data centers, all using electricity, so no asking your group for help. So your fancy computer and laptop will just be a brick at that stage for 99.something percent of people.
Some have satellite internet, but those also beam to a base station, I don’t know how for example Starlink work, if they just relay across the globe you will be fine but anything local, dunno.

So now you say we’ll we will just use our good old radios, like everybody did on the good old days, fine, but again the repeaters run on……yup, same thing, there goes your radios.

So for everybody thinking the bug-in is best, make sure you understand that any and all technology you will be relying on must be supplied by yourself, if your system is based on another systems good luck with that. Crux is just sit down and think, what system of yours will keep running that does not require the aid of anything else, precious little I tell you, write them all down and identify the flaws in their running requirements.

[Trundle]

Now water, let’s say you have a tank full of water, what will you do with said water besides drinking?
I say this because the sewage system is based on power, down for an extended period of time and the sewage goes down, you have all the water you need you just cannot flush your toilet, since the sewage is clogged up and there is nobody to fix it, is your family used to using the grass in your garden as a toilet like your dogs do, it will come to that?

If you live at the bottom of the hill and have pumped sewerage, those pumps ain't pumping shit.
You will be the unlucky recipient of all the uphill shit. Gravity will make you her bitch.

Pro Tip: Download the Humanure Handbook, it's free.

I don’t know how for example Starlink work, if they just relay across the globe you will be fine but anything local, dunno.

I have one, we terminate via Nigeria, Rwanda, Mauritius etc. The Walkerville/Klipriver area had a multi substation cable theft issue last week (Thursday - Monday) and Starlink was up all the time. We had zero issues.

So for everybody thinking the bug-in is best, make sure you understand that any and all technology you will be relying on must be supplied by yourself, if your system is based on another systems good luck with that. Crux is just sit down and think, what system of yours will keep running that does not require the aid of anything else, precious little I tell you, write them all down and identify the flaws in their running requirements.

100%. The fastest way to see how you will fair is to turn Eskom off for the weekend, make it a game with the family. Then do a week.
Real fast lessons there.

[SoldierMan]

If you live at the bottom of the hill and have pumped sewerage, those pumps ain't pumping shit.
You will be the unlucky recipient of all the uphill shit. Gravity will make you her bitch.

Pro Tip: Download the Humanure Handbook, it's free.

It's not free according to their website.
But you can download a free condensed version from their website: http://humanurehandbook.com/download...anual_2019.pdf

I was reading through and it says that it takes a year before it is ready to use, is that right? I was expecting a few months.

[Trundle]

Yup, a year is a good ball park.
In ZA with our warmer temps things do work a bit faster.

Unless you are going full dry toilet permanently, this is a solution for when the SHTF.

We would probably only need it for 6 months in a best case scenario.

[MSW2]

Go take a 1:50000 map of your area. See where all the squatter camps and locations are. Realise you are surround. Realise that you won’t get get though them in a soft skinned vehicle.

If you haven’t bugged out before the SHTF you are best off bugging in.

Know how big some of them are and on both sides of the road... A convoy can get boxed in and cut off / to pieces.

If you cannot get out ahead of the curve you are screwed.

Stay where you are at first with like-minded people. Have supplies to last as many months as possible. Have a secondary location to go to if needed after a month or so. Then if you do move do so in a big well armed convoy, scouting ahead, etc. on a well planned route.